Analysis. Inbound tourism numbers to China in 2025

Based on the most recent available data and reports, China is not currently experiencing a drop in inbound tourism numbers as of March 6, 2025. Instead, the country has seen a significant increase in inbound tourism in recent years, particularly in 2024, following the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions and the implementation of visa facilitation policies. However, these numbers still have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels (i.e., 2019), which might be interpreted as a "drop" relative to that benchmark, depending on the context of the question.

IMAGE: Western tourists on the Great Wall (7 Wayfinders)

Recent Trends in Inbound Tourism

• 2024 Surge: Reports indicate that China’s inbound tourism has been on an upward trajectory in 2024. For instance, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported 94.6283 million inbound tourists in the first three quarters of 2024, a 78.8% increase year-on-year. Additionally, posts on X and other sources suggest that the full year of 2024 saw 64.88 million inbound and outbound trips by foreign nationals, an 82.9% increase from 2023, driven by visa-free policies and simplified entry processes.
• First Half of 2024: Data from the National Immigration Administration shows 14.64 million inbound trips by foreigners in the first half of 2024, up 152.7% from the same period in 2023, with visa-free entries accounting for over half of these trips (8.54 million, up 190.1% year-on-year).
• January to July 2024: Another report notes that China welcomed over 17.25 million foreign tourists from January to July 2024, a 130% increase compared to the same period in 2023, largely due to expanded visa-exemption policies.

Comparison to Pre-Pandemic Levels

• 2019 Baseline: In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, China recorded 145.31 million inbound trips (including visitors from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and 49.1 million overnight foreign visitors, generating $131.3 billion in tourism revenue. These figures represent the high watermark for China’s inbound tourism.
• 2023 Recovery: In 2023, inbound tourism was still significantly below 2019 levels, with 35.5 million foreign visitors (less than 40% of 2019’s total) and domestic tourism recovering to 81% of pre-pandemic levels. The full recovery of international tourism lagged due to lingering pandemic effects, limited flight capacity, and geopolitical tensions.
• 2024 Progress: While 2024 shows substantial growth over 2023, the reported 94.6283 million inbound tourists in the first three quarters suggest that the annual total might approach or exceed 100 million. However, this still falls short of the 145.31 million recorded in 2019, indicating that inbound tourism has not yet fully returned to its pre-pandemic peak.

Factors Influencing Inbound Tourism

• Positive Drivers: China’s introduction of visa-free policies for citizens of over a dozen countries (e.g., France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and New Zealand) and the 144-hour visa-free transit policy for 54 countries have significantly boosted arrivals. Improved payment systems for foreigners (e.g., linking foreign bank cards to WeChat and Alipay) and the recovery of international flight routes (over 6,000 flights per week in 2024) have also contributed.
• Challenges: Despite the growth, challenges persist. These include perceptions of China’s political environment, geopolitical tensions (e.g., with the U.S.), high airfare costs due to limited flight availability, and a shift in global tourism competition (e.g., Japan’s tourism boom due to a weak yen). Additionally, some data may inflate inbound numbers by including business travelers or cross-border movements from neighboring regions like Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, which may not reflect pure tourism.

Conclusion

As of the latest data in 2024, China is not experiencing a drop in inbound tourism numbers compared to the immediate post-pandemic years (2021–2023). Instead, it is seeing a robust recovery, with significant year-on-year increases. However, if the question is framed relative to pre-pandemic levels (2019), inbound tourism remains below that peak, though the gap is narrowing. There is no evidence of a recent decline in 2025 thus far, as the data only extends through 2024. Ongoing policy efforts and global travel trends will likely determine whether this upward trajectory continues or reverses in the near future.